№84-2
Prediction of hydrocarbon pollution dispersion in soil environment and environmental risk assessment based on mathematical modeling
B. Herasymenko1 https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5582-9057
1Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine
Coll.res.pap.nat.min.univ. 2026, 84:24–35
Full text (PDF)
https://doi.org/10.33271/crpnmu/84.024
АНОТАЦІЯ
Purpose. Development of a mathematical model for predicting the spread of hydrocarbon contamination in heterogeneous soil, taking into account nonlinear sorption and probabilistic risk assessment to determine areas of critical groundwater contamination and optimize remediation measures on oil pipeline routes.
The methods. Numerical methods for solving the advection-dispersion equation were applied, taking into account nonlinear sorption according to the Freundlich isotherm and spatial heterogeneity of the soil. The finite difference method with an implicit Crank-Nicholson scheme and the Newton-Raphson iterative method in the MATLAB environment were used for calculations. Risk assessment is based on the Monte Carlo method (N=10,000 realizations), which takes into account the stochastic nature of the filtration coefficient, sorption parameters, and dispersivity.
Findings. The results obtained demonstrate the high accuracy of the developed model, which provides a 23–34% reduction in prediction error compared to traditional approaches. It was found that with typical parameters, the delay factor is R=4.2, which slows down the migration of pollution by 4.2 times compared to the water flow.
The originality. The study first proposed an approach that combines deterministic modeling of hydrocarbon transport with probabilistic analysis of uncertainties in input parameters. The critical sorption nonlinearity index ncrit ≈ 0.75 was established, below which ignoring nonlinearity leads to significant errors in predicting the concentration profile. It is proven that the traditional deterministic approach underestimates real risks, not taking into account the 23% probability of exceeding the MPC due to the heterogeneity of the environment.
Practical implementation. The proposed methodology allows building dynamic risk probability maps for rapid response to oil spills. The use of the model provides scientific justification for the scope of remediation work and the identification of priority environmental monitoring zones on oil pipelines that have been in operation for more than 30–50 years. This contributes to increasing environmental safety and minimizing the consequences of contamination of agricultural lands and aquifers.
Keywords: pollution spread, mathematical modeling, soil-surface environment, risk assessment, advection-dispersion, hydrocarbon sorption.
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date of first submission of the article to the publication – 01/11/2026
date of acceptance of the article for publication after review – 02/12/2026
date of publication – 03/30/2026